Life expectancy in Gaza halved during first year of war, Lancet study finds
By isabelle // 2025-04-15
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  • Life expectancy in Gaza dropped from 75.5 to 40.5 years due to Israel’s military offensive.
  • The study excludes indirect deaths from famine and destroyed hospitals; the actual toll is likely to be far higher.
  • 90% of Gaza’s population displaced, 44% of verified deaths are children.
  • U.S. arms support and siege tactics are raising ethical and legal concerns.
  • Lancet data questions proportionality, exposing a humanitarian catastrophe with lasting generational trauma.
In the year since Israel launched its military offensive in response to Hamas’ October 7 attack, life in Gaza has deteriorated at an unprecedented rate. A new study published in The Lancet reveals that life expectancy in the besieged Palestinian enclave has plummeted from 75.5 years to just 40.5—an alarming 46.3% decline. The research, led by University of Pennsylvania sociologist Michel Guillot, examined only direct war casualties, excluding indirect deaths from famine, disease, and collapsing medical infrastructure, suggesting the actual toll may be far higher. As debates rage over the proportionality of Israel’s campaign—which has killed tens of thousands, including a staggering number of children—the humanitarian catastrophe raises urgent moral and strategic questions for the U.S., Israel’s chief ally.

A humanitarian catastrophe unfolds

The study’s findings underscore the devastating human cost of the conflict, particularly for Gazan civilians caught in the crossfire. Life expectancy losses were even more severe for men (51.6%) than women (38.6%), reflecting the disproportionate killing of males in military-aged groups. However, women and children have borne the brunt of indirect suffering, with reports of widespread malnutrition, destroyed hospitals, and Israeli snipers targeting civilians. The Lancet researchers caution that their estimates are conservative, as they exclude missing persons, those buried under rubble, and fatalities from war-induced deprivation. “Actual losses are likely to be higher,” the study warns. “Even more importantly, our results do not include the indirect effects of the war on mortality.” The World Health Organization expressed concerns that Gaza Strip residents — approximately 22,500 individuals — have experienced "life-changing injuries" requiring long-term rehabilitation services. "The huge surge in rehabilitation needs occurs in parallel with the ongoing decimation of the health system," said Richard Peeperkorn, who serves as the WHO Representative in the occupied Palestinian territory, in a statement to The Telegraph. "Patients can't get the care they need." Israel’s military operations, backed by American weapons and diplomatic support, have ravaged Gaza’s infrastructure. Over 90% of the population was displaced, and the UN reports that 80% of verified deaths occurred in residential areas. While Israel disputes Gaza Health Ministry figures, calling them Hamas propaganda, independent analyses—including a UN review—found no evidence of data inflation. The UN Human Rights Office confirmed that 44% of the dead were children, with the highest death rates among those aged five to nine.

Questioning the cost of war

The October 7 Hamas attacks, which killed 1,200 Israelis and took 250 hostages, initially galvanized global sympathy for Israel’s right to self-defense. However, the scale of Gaza’s devastation—now quantified by The Lancet’s life expectancy collapse—has prompted scrutiny of whether the military response aligns with international law and moral imperatives. The campaign’s indiscriminate bombings and siege tactics have collectively punished civilians. The ethical implications extend to U.S. policy, as Washington continues supplying arms to Israel despite mounting evidence of mass civilian harm. While condemning Hamas’ brutality, human rights groups question whether unconditional military aid makes America complicit in violations of proportionality. A path forward remains uncertain. Though recent ceasefires have temporarily halted fighting, The Lancet’s data exposes a deeper reckoning: even wars against terrorism must consider their human toll. The Lancet study offers a grim metric for Gaza’s suffering: a life expectancy slashed in half, a population pushed to the brink. Beyond statistics, it reflects a generational trauma with no easy resolution. For policymakers and the public alike, the figures demand an uncomfortable question: At what point does defense become devastation? Sources for this article include: FreeWestMedia.com TheLancet.com Telegraph.co.uk PennToday.UPenn.edu
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